Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Japan Stocks Rise as Leasing Shares Climb on Abe’s Plan

Japan's Topix Index (TPX) closed at its highest since August 2008, led by leasing companies on a report Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will encourage the practice as part of his growth strategy.

Orix Corp. (8591), which provides leasing and loans, jumped 9.2 percent. Mizuno Corp. soared 18 percent after the sportswear company more than doubled its net-income forecast. A gauge tracking agricultural stocks climbed to the highest since 2008 on a separate report that Abe plans to double the industry's income in a decade. Sony Corp. (6758) dropped 1.7 percent after Japan's biggest exporter of consumer electronics surged 19 percent over the past five trading days.

The Topix added 0.6 percent to close at 1,253.24 in Tokyo, the highest since Aug. 29, 2008, after falling as much as 0.7 percent. The gauge capped a 3.5 percent gain this week. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.7 percent to 15,138.12 today. Gains were limited amid signs the market may be overheating.

"Leasing companies continue to draw attention as they surge on a report about the government's growth strategy," said Takashi Aoki, a Tokyo-based fund manager at Mizuho Asset Management Co., which oversees about 3.4 trillion yen ($33 billion). "The market is trading in a tight range as profit-taking takes place while investors buy on dips."

The Topix has risen 46 percent this year, outperforming all major equity indexes amid unprecedented easing from the Bank of Japan. The gauge traded at 1.3 times book value, compared with about 2.4 for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and 1.7 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.

Abe Strategy

Abe will encourage leasing to revive capital spending to a level last seen before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the Nikkei newspaper said without citing anyone. The prime minister will outline a growth plan in a speech today after the market close.

Orix jumped 9.2 percent to 1,638 yen. Mitsubishi UFJ Lease & Finance Co. surged 17 percent to 597 yen.

Abe's growth strategies will also include boosting the agricultural industry and tripling infrastructure exports to about 30 trillion yen by 2020, public broadcaster NHK reported.

The Topix Fishery, Agriculture & Forestry Index rose 3.5 percent, the biggest gain since Feb. 26. Nippon Suisan Kaisha Ltd., a maker of seafood products, added 6.3 percent to 219 yen. Sakata Seed Corp. gained 6.1 percent to 1,530 yen.

Investors are more confident in a Japanese leader than at any time since at least September 2010. Abe's policies are perceived more optimistically than those of his counterparts in the U.S., Europe and China, according to a worldwide poll of investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers.

Overheating Signs

Shares opened lower today after the 14-day relative strength index, a measure of trading momentum, held above 70 for both the Topix and the Nikkei 225 for the past six days. That's a level some traders say signals a sell-off.

Sony slid 1.7 percent to 2,046 yen after its 14-day RSI climbed to 81 yesterday.

Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.2 percent today. The equity gauge fell 0.5 percent in New York yesterday, halting four days of record gains. A report showed jobless claims jumped by 32,000 to 360,000 last week, the most since the end of March. Housing starts slumped 16.5 percent in April, the most since February 2011.

Of the 803 companies on the Topix that have reported full-year earnings since April 1, and for which Bloomberg has estimates, 482 beat analysts' projections.

Mizuno soared 18 percent to 505 yen, the biggest gain since 1999, after saying net income will more than double to 4.2 billion yen in the current fiscal year.

The Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index fell 0.5 percent to 26.53, indicating traders expect a swing of about 7.6 percent on the benchmark gauge during the next 30 days.

Why the Ford Escape Is Winning Over America


The 2013 Ford Escape. Source: Ford.

Ford's (NYSE: F  ) Escape has been one of the company's best success stories over the past couple of years. It has a chance to do something that only the F-Series has accomplished over the past decade -- break 300,000 in vehicle sales for an entire year. That would be a huge accomplishment, since the F-Series has been America's best-selling vehicle for 31 years, and the best-selling truck for 36.

But what makes the new Escape so popular? Let's look at what consumers love about the new ride, what critics are saying, and why Ford investors should be excited.

So many perks!
Consumers have gravitated toward the Escape SUV because of its numerous technological and fuel-efficient options. Here's a quick run-down of what you can expect when buying a new, fully loaded Escape. Let's start with the fresh outside appearance and design.

Gone are the days of the boxy style, replaced with a curvy, sleek, contemporary design. The new front grille and lower bumper catch the eye, and the 19-inch wheels give a more modern look. Its high-intensity headlights and fog lamps only complete the more aggressive look. Now that the looks draw you in, how does the Escape seal the deal?

Interior
Once you find yourself in the stylish SUV, there are a few things that will grab your attention. It has a long list of convenient, comfortable, and innovative features. The rear seats are designed to fold easy, and with the press of a button and the lift of a handle, you can transform the Escape into a cargo-carrying beast. To assist, as you may have seen in the commercials, you can simply place your foot under a sensor underneath the rear of the vehicle, and the hands-free lift opens the rear hatch -- pretty slick, and helpful when carrying heavy items.

When it comes to technology, the popular ride also features Sync with MyFordTouch, and Bluetooth, giving consumers hands-free control of the vehicle interior with voice commands.

No gas-guzzler here
When it comes down to it these days, fuel efficiency is one of the most important factors when consumers decide which vehicle to purchase. The Escape's 2-liter EcoBoost option delivers 24 miles per gallon -- a 5 mpg improvement over its predecessor.

Innovation
Along with fuel efficiency, tech innovations are also a key driver for vehicle purchases. The Escape is a winner here as well, offering technology that can slow the vehicle automatically when cornering too fast. It also features an active park assist, as well as blind-spot detection and alerts.

Check out what the critics have to say:

Consumer Guide: "The redesigned 2013 Ford Escape is dramatically different than the vehicle it replaces. This compact sport utility is smooth, refined, and quite engaging to drive." Popular Mechanics: "The new Escape finally delivers a modern small crossover to the Ford family. It's certainly one of the sharpest-looking vehicles in this price class, and when equipped with one of the EcoBoost engines, the Escape is a fun and practical ute." 

Bottom line: It delivers
There's plenty for consumers to be happy about, and they've responded in droves, increasing Escape sales 52% over last April's figures. That's where investors should be excited about profit potential. The Escape, when fully loaded, becomes pricier than its predecessor and is more profitable than other standard vehicles. It's even better news that the price increase hasn't turned off consumers from making the purchase.

In fact, SUVs are right next to the F-Series -- which brings in majority of Ford's profits -- in profitability. The redesigned SUV delivers on all the important factors for consumers, and in so doing, it delivers top- and bottom-line profits for Ford and its investors. This story is only beginning.

The best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term, like I've done with Ford over the past few years. The Motley Fool's free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich" names stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of. Click here now to keep reading.

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Is Welfare Becoming a for-Profit Business?

The social health and financial buffer put in place in the United States to protect the basic human needs of all individuals, collectively known as welfare, is gigantic. Some 47.8 million people are currently enrolled in the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program, which you may know better by its short-hand term, food stamps. Also, as of mid-January, close to 5.6 million people were receiving some form of unemployment benefits.

The scope of welfare is difficult to comprehend, but the amount of money spent by federal and state governments on social and health programs is plain as day. According to Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), welfare spending between state and federal governments is up more than 30% since President Obama took office and topped $1 trillion in 2011, based on a study released last October.

We've definitely seen certain companies angling themselves to take advantage of the increasing government dollars flowing into welfare -- especially in the health-care sector. The passing of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) is going to bring upwards of 16 million newly insured low-income individuals and families under the umbrella of government-sponsored Medicaid, so insurers have been doing everything they can to get their slice of the pie. WellPoint (NYSE: WLP  ) ponied up $4.5 billion to buy Amerigroup and hurdle past UnitedHealth Group to become the nation's largest private Medicaid insurer. Aetna (NYSE: AET  ) followed suit shortly thereafter in August with a $5.6 billion purchase of Coventry Health Care, aimed, similarly, at gaining more Medicaid-based customers.  

Is the game about to change?
The point is we've expected this of health insurers and certain medical service providers for years. But, the way I see it, a completely different set of circumstances currently making their rounds throughout the states could greatly broaden the scope of welfare from simply a basic human-needs service to a for-profit business.

What I'm talking about is the ongoing debate over mandatory drug testing. Certain states, including Michigan in 1999, Florida in 2011, and Georgia in 2012, passed laws that allowed them to mandate that everyone receiving welfare be drug tested before divvying out their monthly disbursement. In Michigan, this law was overturned in 2003, and in Florida, the American Civil Liberties Union successfully argued for, and had a federal appeals court uphold, a temporary ban against the encompassing drug screenings for everyone on welfare. Other states, including Arizona, Missouri, Utah, and Oklahoma also test welfare recipients, but only if there's a reasonable cause for suspicion according to The Wall Street Journal.

As with all political battlegrounds, there are two sides to this issue. On one hand, with government budgets tightening because of the sequester, it would be nice to know that members of society who need a helping hand are getting it. Mandatory drug testing would keep that money out of the hands of illicit drug dealers and put it in the hands of people who need the assistance.

Conversely, mandatory drug testing is expensive and time consuming, and it hasn't proved to be a money-saving effort in its short history. According to USA Today, Arizona's "suspicion-driven" testing was effective only 0.00001% of the time, with only one person of the 87,000 tested coming back positive. The head-banger of the Arizona test is that applicants had only to answer a question "yes" or "no" to whether they had used illegal drugs in the past 30 days. If they answered "no," then Arizona couldn't test them! Even in Florida, where everyone is testing everyone, only 2.7% of applicants have failed the drug screening. Worse yet, the test costs $30-$40 and is to be paid by the applicant. The applicant is reimbursed if he or she passes, but $30-$40 can sometimes be hard to scrape together for welfare recipients.

The real question is whether other states will catch onto and adopt this idea -- and the answer seems to be leaning toward "yes." In 2011, 36 of 50 states considered adopting some form of drug testing for welfare recipients, based on figures in The New York Times -- a dramatic increase from previous years. If adopted on a large scale, it could push welfare from being just a battleground for health-service providers to a free-for-all across a myriad of sectors.

Welfare as a driver of profits
First of all, drug diagnostic companies would be the logical winners under a larger adoption scenario. Regardless of whether these companies are paid by the state or by the recipient, it's guaranteed money in their pocket. Under a wider adoption scenario, I wouldn't even be surprised if diagnostic companies switched gears and developed their own drug-testing kits in order to join the fray.

Another winner under this scenario would be the nation's prison system. Even as some states begin to legalize the use of recreational marijuana in a person's home, the federal government still views it as an illegal substance.


Source: California Department of Corrections. 

The premise here would be that any increase in nationwide drug testing would be bound to turn up additional drug users and could boost the prison population. That would be great news for the GEO Group (NYSE: GEO  ) and Corrections Corp. of America (NYSE: CXW  ) , which are contracted out through the government to run and service prisons around the country.

Finally, legal alternatives to "getting high" should see a boost -- namely, spirit producers. Since most drugs are traceable in the human body for weeks and alcohol tends to leave your system long before 24 hours is up, domestic beer behemoths such as Anheuser-Busch InBev and Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP  ) , as well as hard-liquor producers such as Brown-Forman, the maker of Jack Daniels and Southern Comfort, should be primed to benefit. For the domestic beer producers, this would be an incredibly welcome sign, as stagnant take-home pay has weighed heavily on beer consumption.

Where do we go from here?
There's no question in my mind that these industry groups would benefit from expanded welfare drug screening. The question comes down to whether it's ethical and worth spending the added government funds and resources on expanding this program to additional states. Furthermore, aside from the health-benefits industry, should businesses in these industries be gearing up for increased testing to essentially "stay ahead of the curve?" Sound off with your thoughts in the comments section below.

The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in the brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

link

Friday, March 27, 2015

Is This the End of Easy Money?

The following video is from Wednesday's Investor Beat, in which host Chris Hill and analysts Jason Moser and Lyons George dissect the hardest-hitting investing stories of the day.

The S&P and the Dow hit new all-time highs on Wednesday, in the wake of news that the Federal Reserve is thinking about ending its quantitative-easing policy. What would the end of easy money mean for investors? Which stocks stand to benefit? In this installment of Investor Beat, our analysts explain why tech giants such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) , Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) , and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) could emerge as big winners if the Fed changes course.

As one of the most dominant Internet companies ever, Google has made a habit of driving strong returns for its shareholders. However, like many other Web companies, it's also struggling to adapt to an increasingly mobile world. Despite gaining an enviable lead with its Android operating system, the market isn't sold. That's why it's more important than ever to understand each piece of Google's sprawling empire. In The Motley Fool's new premium research report on Google, we break down the risks and potential rewards for Google investors. Simply click here now to unlock your copy of this invaluable resource.

The relevant video segment can be found between 0:16 and 2:57.

Monday, March 23, 2015

The Secret Indicator That Bulls Will Love

Ken Fisher has been writing the Forbes Portfolio Strategy column for 30 years and is the third-longest running columnist in Forbes' history. He is also founder, chairman and CEO of Fisher Investments, an independent money management firm, which manages tens of billions of dollars and serves tens of thousands of high net worth individuals, foundations, endowments, and large pension plans. He is the author of 10 books, 5 of which are national best sellers. Ken Fisher started writing his monthly column in 1984, the same year he gained international attention for his book Super Stocks, which popularized the price-to-sales ratio. His writing for Forbes was commemorated in a book published by Wiley in 2010, The Making of a Market Guru: Forbes Presents 25 Years of Ken Fisher. He was honored by Investment Advisor magazine as one of the industry's 30 most influential individuals over the last 30 years (Thirty for Thirty, May 2010). He is ranked No. 243 on the 2013 Forbes 400 list of richest Americans. For an archive of past columns, visit: http://www.fi.com/forbes

Contact Ken Fisher

The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.

Saturday, March 21, 2015

5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Short-sellers hate being caught short a stock that reports a blowout quarter. When this happens, we often see a tradable short squeeze develop as the bears rush to cover their positions to avoid big losses. Even the best short-sellers know that it's never a great idea to stay short once a bullish earnings report sparks a big short-covering rally.

Must Read: 5 Big Stocks to Side-Step the Selloff

This is why I scan the market for heavily shorted stocks that are about to report earnings. You only need to find a few of these stocks in a year to help enhance your portfolio returns -- the gains become so outsized in such a short time frame that your profits add up quickly.

That said, let's not forget that stocks are heavily shorted for a reason, so you have to use trading discipline and sound money management when playing earnings short-squeeze candidates. It's important that you don't go betting the farm on these plays and that you manage your risk accordingly. Sometimes the best play is to wait for the stock to break out following the report before you jump in to profit off a short squeeze. This way, you're letting the trend emerge after the market has digested all of the news.

Of course, sometimes the stock is going to be in such high demand that you risk missing a lot of the move by waiting. That's why it can be worth betting prior to the report -- but only if the stock is acting technically very bullish and you have a very strong conviction that it is going to rip higher. Just remember that even when you have that conviction and have done your due diligence, the stock can still get hammered if Wall Street doesn't like the numbers or guidance.

If you do decide to bet ahead of a quarter, then you might want to use options to limit your capital exposure. Heavily shorted stocks are usually the names that make the biggest post-earnings moves and have the most volatility. I personally prefer to wait until all the earnings-related news is out for a heavily shorted stock and then jump in and trade the prevailing trend.

With that in mind, here's a look at several stocks that could experience big short squeezes when they report earnings this week.

Must Read: 5 Stocks to Trade for Big Breakout Gains

BlackBerry

My first earnings short-squeeze trade idea is wireless communications solutions provider BlackBerry (BBRY), which is set to release numbers on Friday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect BlackBerry to report revenue of $945.56 million on a loss of 16 cents per share.

Just recently, Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette said he expects BlackBerry to report an in-line quarter that demonstrates financial and operational stabilization ahead of key releases in the coming quarter. He currently has an equal weight rating on the stock with no price target.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for BlackBerry is very high at 18.5%. That means that out of the 479.46 million shares in the tradable float, 89.11 million shares are sold short by the bears. If this company can produce the earnings results the bulls are looking for, then shares of BBRY could easily spike sharply higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of their positions.

From a technical perspective, BBRY is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending over the last two months, with shares moving higher from its low of $8.71 to its recent high of $11.17 a share. During that uptrend, shares of BBRY have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of BBRY within range of triggering a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're bullish on BBRY, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some key near-term overhead resistance levels at $11.17 to its 52-week high at $11.65 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 13.96 million shares. If that breakout gets underway post-earnings, then BBRY will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $13 to $14 a share.

I would simply avoid BBRY or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $10.11 a share to its 50-day moving average of $10.09 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then BBRY will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at its 200-day moving average of $8.92 to $8.71 a share, or even $8 a share.

Must Read: 5 stocks Spiking on Big Volume

Diamond Foods

Another potential earnings short-squeeze play is packaged food player Diamond Foods (DMND), which is set to release its numbers on Thursday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Diamond Foods to report revenue $208.41 million on earnings of 15 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Diamond Foods is very high at 14.3%. That means that out of the 26.15 million shares in the tradable float, 3.75 million shares are sold short by the bears. Any bullish earnings results from Diamond Foods that the market likes could spark a sharp short-covering rally for this stock post-earnings.

From a technical perspective, DMND is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been trending sideways for the last three months, with shares moving between $25.13 on the downside and $29.49 on the upside. Any high-volume move above the upper-end of its recent sideways trading chart pattern post-earnings could produce a big breakout trade for shares of DMND.

If you're in the bull camp on DMND, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 50-day moving average of $27.36 to its 200-day moving average at $28.58 a share and then more resistance at $29.20 to $29.49 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 267,505 shares. If that breakout triggers post-earnings, then DMND will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $32 to $33.55 a share, or even $35 a share.

I would simply avoid DMND or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support at $25.13 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then DMND will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $23.17 to its 52-week low at $20.22 a share.

Must Read: 5 Rocket Stocks Ready for Blastoff This Week

Micron Technology

Another potential earnings short-squeeze candidate is semiconductor solutions provider Micron Technology (MU), which is set to release numbers on Thursday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Micron Technology to report revenue of $4.15 billion on earnings of 80 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Micron Technology is pretty high at 9.5%. That means that out of the 1.06 billion shares in the tradable float, 101.26 million shares are sold short by the bears. If Micron Technology can produce strong earnings results that the bulls love, then shares of MU could easily rip sharply higher post-earnings as the shorts rush to cover some of their bets.

From a technical perspective, MU is currently trending above its 200-day moving average and just below its 50-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has started to form a major bottoming chart pattern over the last month and change, with shares of MU finding buying interest each time it has pulled back to just under $30 a share. That being said, shares of MU have also been making lower highs and over the last month, which is bearish technical price action.

If you're bullish on MU, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 50-day moving average of $32.12 a share to more near-term overhead resistance at $32.55 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that registers near or above its three-month average action of 24.61 million shares. If that breakout kicks off post-earnings, then MU will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $33.41 to $33.70, or even $34.28 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give MU a chance to take out its 52-week high of $34.85 a share.

I would avoid MU or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below some key near-term support levels at $29.73 to $29.38 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then MU will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support level at its 200-day moving average of $27.25 a share.

Must Read: Hedge Funds Love These 5 Tech Stocks -- but Should You?

Scholastic

Another earnings short-squeeze prospect is global children's book publishing, education and media player Scholastic (SCHL), which is set to release numbers on Thursday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Scholastic to report revenue of $285 million on a loss of 84 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Scholastic is pretty high at 11.9%. That means that out of the 27.86 million shares in the tradable float, 3.32 million shares are sold short by the bears. This stock currently sports a high short interest with a very low tradable float. Any bullish earnings news could easily set off a large short-squeeze post-earnings that sends the bears scrambling to cover some of their short positions in SCHL.

From a technical perspective, SCHL is currently trending below its 50-day moving average and just above its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock has been downtrending over the last month and change, with shares moving lower from its high of $36.71 to its intraday low of $33.72 a share. During that downtrend, shares of SCHL have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of SCHL are now trading very close to a key support level at its 200-day moving average of $33.33 a share.

If you're bullish on SCHL, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out back above its 50-day moving average of $34.96 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 129,606 shares. If that breakout develops post-earnings, then SCHL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at its 52-week high of $36.87 a share. Any high-volume move above that level will then give SCHL a chance to tag or take out $40 a share.

I would simply avoid SCHL or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then takes out its 200-day moving average of $33.33 a share to more key support at $32.50 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then SCHL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $31 to $30.45 a share, or even $29 to $28 a share.

Must Read: Warren Buffett's Top 10 Dividend Stocks

Jabil Circuit

My final earnings short-squeeze play is electronic manufacturing services and solutions provider Jabil Circuit (JBL), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Jabil Circuit to report revenue of $3.83 billion on earnings of 2 cents per share.

The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Jabil Circuit sits at 2.5%. That means that out of the 182.67 million shares in the tradable float, 4.69 million shares are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 16.7%, or by 671,000 shares. If the bears get caught pressing their bets into a bullish quarter, then shares of JBL could easily rip sharply higher post-earnings as the shorts rush to cover some of their trades.

From a technical perspective, JBL is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong over the last five months, with shares moving higher from its low of $16.92 to its recent high of $21.87 a share. During that uptrend, shares of JBL have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of JBL within range of triggering a big breakout trade post-earnings.

If you're in the bull camp on JBL, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $21.87 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that registers near or above its three-month average action of 1.60 million shares. If that breakout develops post-earnings, then JBL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $23.92 a share to its 52-week high at $24.13 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give JBL a chance to tag or take out $26 to $27 a share.

I would avoid JBL or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout, and then drops back below both its 50-day moving average of $20.91 a share to $20 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then JBL will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at its 200-day moving average of $18.94 to $17 a share.

Must Read: How to Trade the Market's Most-Active Stocks

To see more potential earnings short squeeze plays, check out the Earnings Short-Squeeze Plays portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Breakout Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar



>>4 Health Care Stocks Triggering Breakout Trades



>>5 Short-Squeeze Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com.

You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Thursday, March 19, 2015

Japan stocks extend their uphill climb

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Japan's Nikkei Average (JP:NIK) traded 0.5% higher in the early minutes Tuesday, extending the previous day's 0.9% advance, with the market getting some support from overnight gains for U.S. shares and a slightly weaker yen (dollar at ¥101.56 vs. ¥101.40 at Monday's open). Among the gainers, Toshiba Corp. (JP:6502) (TOSYY) rose 1.7%, Hitachi Ltd. (JP:6501) (HTHIF) gained 1.5%, NEC Corp. (JP:6701) (NIPNF) improved by 2.5%, Bridgestone Corp. (JP:5108) (BRDCF) added 2.7% to extend gains over the past couple weeks following the company's purchase of U.S.-based Masthead Industries, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (JP:7011) (MHVYF) traded 1.1% higher as a Wall Street Journal report said the industrial major's Mitsubishi Aircraft unit had reached a tentative deal to sell 40 jets for the planned revival of defunct U.S. carrier Eastern Air Lines Group Inc. Auto makers were firmer as well, with Nissan Motor Co. (JP:7201) (NSANY) up 1.3%, Toyota Motor Corp. (JP:7203) (TM) up 0.5%, and Honda Motor Co. (JP:7267) (HMC) leading the sector with a 1.8% advance after the company said it would start moving its portable outboard-engine production to China next April, according to a Nikkei news report. Among decliners, Alps Electric Co. (JP:6770) lost 1.3%, and chemical-engineering company Showa Denko KK (JP:4004) pulled back by 1.4%, getting no love from a Nikkei report tipping its January-June profit to come in 50% higher than in the year-earlier period. Japanese investors were also awaiting the latest policy decision from the Bank of Japan, expected sometime around the market's midday break, though most economists saw little chance of any change to policy.

Monday, March 16, 2015

Goldman Sees M&A Driving Growth Among Auto Dealers

It's a good day for auto dealer stocks. CarMax (CMX) got engines revving on Wall Street when it posted blowout quarterly results. And Goldman Sachs upgraded AutoNation (AN) from Neutral to Buy and set a six-month price target of $65, citing the company's growth prospects, margins and balance sheet.

The AutoNation upgrade was actually part of a broader industry call by analysts Patrick Archambault and David Tamberrino. In a 32-page note published today, the pair raised estimates for auto dealers, citing increased SAAR projections for 2014 through 2016 and growth opportunity's from M&A. Archambault and Tamberrino write:

The combination of these factors drives up our 2015/2016 EPS estimates to 2.4% and 6.1% above the Street which we believe is understating the sector's growth potential. M&A is the key growth opportunity. About 2 points of our 3% profit revision comes from M&A. With $2.4bn of dry powder, a still very fragmented dealer group, and reasonable valuations on the private side we think the risk is to the upside for acquisitions. M&A has added 2.4% to dealer revenue growth annually over the past 5 years which we assume continues.

AutoNation rose 2.7% to $58.04, while CarMax surged 15.6% to $52.32

 

3 Big Stocks on Traders' Radars

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Put down the 10-K filings and the stock screeners. It's time to take a break from the traditional methods of generating investment ideas. Instead, let the crowd do it for you.

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

From hedge funds to individual investors, scores of market participants are turning to social media to figure out which stocks are worth watching. It's a concept that's known as "crowdsourcing," and it uses the masses to identify emerging trends in the market.

Crowdsourcing has long been a popular tool for the advertising industry, but it also makes a lot of sense as an investment tool. After all, the market is completely driven by the supply and demand, so it can be valuable to see what names are trending among the crowd.

While some fund managers are already trying to leverage social media resources like Twitter to find algorithmic trading opportunities, for most investors, crowdsourcing works best as a starting point for investors who want a starting point in their analysis. Today, we'll leverage the power of the crowd to take a look at some of the most active stocks on the market today.

>>5 Big Stock Trades to Buy in June

These "most active" names are the most heavily-traded names on the market -- and often, uber-active names have some sort of a technical or fundamental catalyst driving investors' attention on shares. And when there's a big catalyst, there's often a trading opportunity.

Without further ado, here's a look at today's stocks.

Hertz Global Holdings

Nearest Resistance: $30

Nearest Support: $26

Catalyst: Accounting Errors

Car rental giant Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) is getting hammered lower this afternoon following the announcement that the firm will review the last three years of financial reports after auditors found errors in the firm's financial statements. Hertz is down more than 9% as a result in today's session. The news comes just one trading session ahead of the firm's first quarter earnings release on Monday.

For Hertz shareholders, the good news is that the drop in shares today isn't that meaningful from a technical standpoint. Shares had attempted to break out above a long-term resistance line earlier in the week, but support at $26 is still holding strong. Hertz is down today, but it's not out yet.

Life Time Fitness


Nearest Resistance: $51

Nearest Support: $46

Catalyst: Technical Setup

Lifetime Fitness (LTM) is up 2.7% on big volume this afternoon, a rebound from yesterday's analyst-induced drop in the fitness center stock. Piper Jaffray downgraded LTM from neutral from overweight, spurring an investor exodus from shares the cut ratchets the Piper Jaffray's price target down to $54 from $59.

The move lower may have been abrupt, but shares are holding intermediate support at $46 in today's session. As long as LTM is able to catch a bid at that $46 price floor, it's worth holding on to.

Angie's List


Nearest Resistance: $13

Nearest Support: $10

Catalyst: Analyst Upgrade

Online consumer service ranking site Angie's List (ANGI) is seeing a flood of buying pressure in today's session, up more than 9% as I write on the heels of an upgrade from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. BAML raised their rating on the small-cap name this morning, calling shares a buy. Before today, Angie's List was rated neutral.

Don't get too excited about the upgrade, however. While today's 9% pop is nice for longs, it's really not meaningful in the context of the larger downtrend in shares of ANGI. This stock has sold off by 53% over the last 12 months, and today's move isn't even threatening the resistance level that's swatted shares lower all the way down. Even lower ground still looks likely from here.

To see these stocks in action, check out the at Most-Active Stocks portfolio on Stockpickr.



-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Utility Stocks Hedge Funds Love



>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying



>>5 Toxic Big Pharma Stocks You Need to Sell Now

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in the names mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Saturday, March 14, 2015

Consumer Spending Slips in April, Inflation Creeps Up

consumer spending Ross D. Franklin/AP WASHINGTON -- U.S. consumer spending fell for the first time in a year in April after two months of solid gains, but the decline is likely temporary given a strengthening jobs market. The Commerce Department said Friday consumer sentiment slipped 0.1 percent, which was the first decline since April 2013. But the drop followed an upwardly revised 1 percent jump in March that was the largest gain since August 2009. "The disappointing spending report should be viewed in the context of a stronger handoff into the second quarter," said Gennadiy Goldberg, an economist at TD Securities in New York. "We look for ongoing labor market progress to encourage further growth in consumer spending." Last month's decrease, which was driven by weak spending on durable goods and utilities, didn't change expectations economic growth would top a 3 percent annual pace this quarter after output shrank in the first three months of the year. A separate report showed consumer sentiment slipped in May as households worried about income, but that too was viewed as temporary in light of the steady labor market improvement. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 81.9 in May from 84.1 in April, but was up slightly from earlier in the month. Another report from the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago showed factory activity in the U.S. Midwest reached its highest level in seven months in May, boosted by a surge in new orders. Order backlogs jumped to a three-year high and inventories rose for a second consecutive month. "It provides more evidence that the economy and manufacturing are in an upswing, and points to rising employment," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York. U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on the mixed data, while the dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. stocks were slightly lower. Inflation Creeping Up The report on consumer spending provided the latest evidence that inflation was starting to stir. Prices rose 0.2 percent in April, pushing the year-on-year reading up to 1.6 percent -- the largest gain since November 2012. It had advanced 1.1 percent in March. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.2 percent. These so-called core prices were up 1.4 percent from a year ago, the biggest increase since March 2013. The pickup is welcome news for Federal Reserve officials, who have been worried that inflation was running so far below the central bank's 2 percent target. Weak medical care costs has kept inflation down but that anchor is slipping away. Economists say a rise in those costs plus increasing rents should lift inflation this year and pave the way for an interest rate hike from the Fed. "We believe the inflation backdrop will keep the Fed on a gradual path to normalization and look for the first rate increase in June 2015," said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays in New York. The Fed has held benchmark overnight interest rates near zero since December 2008.

Thursday, March 12, 2015

WHO: Too Many Humans 'Eating Themselves to Death'

USA Fat World Mark Lennihan/AP LONDON -- Almost a third of the world is now fat, and no country has been able to curb obesity rates in the last three decades, according to a new global analysis. Researchers found more than 2 billion people worldwide are now overweight or obese. The highest rates were in the Middle East and North Africa, where nearly 60 percent of men and 65 percent of women are heavy. The U.S. has about 13 percent of the world's fat population, a greater percentage than any other country. China and India combined have about 15 percent. "It's pretty grim," said Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, who led the study. He and colleagues reviewed more than 1,700 studies covering 188 countries from 1980 to 2013. "When we realized that not a single country has had a significant decline in obesity, that tells you how hard a challenge this is." Murray said there was a strong link between income and obesity; in developing countries, as people get richer, their waistlines also tend to start bulging. In many rich countries like the U.S. and Britain, the trend is reversed -- though only slightly. Murray said scientists have noticed accompanying spikes in diabetes as obesity has risen and that rates of cancers linked to weight, like pancreatic cancer, are also rising. The new report was paid for by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and published online Thursday in the journal, Lancet. Last week, the World Health Organization established a high-level commission tasked with ending childhood obesity. "Our children are getting fatter," Dr. Margaret Chan, WHO's director-general, said bluntly during a speech at the agency's annual meeting in Geneva. "Parts of the world are quite literally eating themselves to death." Earlier this year, WHO said that no more than 5 percent of your daily calories should come from sugar. "Modernization has not been good for health," said Syed Shah, an obesity expert at United Arab Emirates University, who found obesity rates have jumped five times in the last 20 years even in a handful of remote Himalayan villages in Pakistan. His research was presented this week at a conference in Bulgaria. "Years ago, people had to walk for hours if they wanted to make a phone call," he said. "Now everyone has a cellphone." Shah also said the villagers no longer have to rely on their own farms for food. "There are roads for [companies] to bring in their processed foods and the people don't have to slaughter their own animals for meat and oil," he said. "No one knew about Coke and Pepsi 20 years ago. Now it's everywhere." In Britain, the independent health watchdog issued new advice Wednesday recommending that heavy people be sent to free weight-loss classes to drop about 3 percent of their weight. It reasoned that losing just a few pounds improves health and is more realistic. About two in three adults in the U.K. are overweight, making it the fattest country in Western Europe. "This is not something where you can just wake up one morning and say, 'I am going to lose 10 pounds,'" said Mike Kelly, the agency's public health director, in a statement. "It takes resolve and it takes encouragement."

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Video Dan Ariely Speaks to Bloomberg at the Ira Sohn Conference

Dressed in his fifth-best t-shirt Dan Ariely discusses the psychology of money with Bloomberg at the high powered Ira Sohn conference.

About the author:Canadian Valuehttp://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/
Currently 0.00/512345

Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes)

Email FeedsSubscribe via Email RSS FeedsSubscribe RSS Comments Please leave your comment:
More GuruFocus Links
Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies
Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net
Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener
Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable
ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies
Insider Trends 10-Year Financials
52-Week Lows Interactive Charts
Model Portfolios DCF Calculator
RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters
The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool
iPhone App MORE GURUFOCUS LINKS
Latest Guru Picks Value Strategies
Warren Buffett Portfolio Ben Graham Net-Net
Real Time Picks Buffett-Munger Screener
Aggregated Portfolio Undervalued Predictable
ETFs, Options Low P/S Companies
Insider Trends 10-Year Financials
52-Week Lows Interactive Charts
Model Portfolios DCF Calculator
RSS Feed Monthly Newsletters
The All-In-One Screener Portfolio Tracking Tool
SPY STOCK PRICE CHART 188.42 (1y: +16%) $(function(){var seriesOptions=[],yAxisOptions=[],name='SPY',display='';Highcharts.setOptions({global:{useUTC:true}});var d=new Date();$current_day=d.getDay();if($current_day==5||$current_day==0||$current_day==6){day=4;}else{day=7;} seriesOptions[0]={id:name,animation:false,color:'#4572A7',lineWidth:1,name:name.toUpperCase()+' stock price',threshold:null,data:[[1367816400000,161.78],[1367902800000,162.6],[1367989200000,163.34],[1368075600000,162.88],[1368162000000,163.41],[1368421200000,163.54],[1368507600000,165.23],[1368594000000,166.12],[1368680400000,165.34],[1368766800000,166.94],[1369026000000,166.93],[1369112400000,167.17],[1369198800000,165.93],[1369285200000,165.45],[1369371600000,165.31],[1369630800000,165.31],[1369717200000,166.3],[1369803600000,165.22],[1369890000000,165.83],[1369976400000,163.45],[1370235600000,164.35],[1370322000000,163.56],[1370408400000,161.27],[1370494800000,162.73],[1370581200000,164.8],[1370840400000,164.8],[1370926800000,163.1],[1371013200000,161.75],[1371099600000,164.21],[1371186000000,163.18],[1371358800000,163.18],[1371445200000,164.44],[1371531600000,165.74],[1371618000000,163.45],[1371704400000,159.4],[1371790800000,159.07],[1372050000000,157.06],[1372136400000,158.58],[1372222800000,160.14],[1372309200000,161.08],[1372395600000,160.42],[1372654800000,161.36],[1372741200000,161.21],[1372827600000,161.28],[1372914000000,161.28],[1373000400000,163.02],[1373259600000,163.95],[1373346000000,165.13],[1373432400000,165.19],[1373518800000,167.44],[1373605200000,167.51],[1373864400000,168.16],[1373950800000,167.53],[1374037200000,167.95],[1374123600000,168.87],[1374210000000,169.17],[1374469200000,169.5],[1374555600000,169.14],[1374642000000,168.52],[1374728400000,168.93],[1374814800000,169.11],[1375074000000,168.59],[1375160400000,168.59],[1375246800000,168.71],[1375333200000,170.66],[1375419600000,170.95],[1375678800000,170.7],[1375765200000,169.73],[1375851600000,169.18],[1375938000000,169.8],[1376024400000,169.31],[1376283600000,169.11],[1376370000000,169.61],[1376456400000,168.74],[1376542800000,166.38],[1376629200000,165.83],[1376888400000,164.77],[1376974800000,165.58],[1377061200000,164.56],[1377147600000,166.06],[1377234000000,166.62],[1377493200000,166],[1377579600000,163.33],[13776660000! 00,163.91],[1377752400000,164.17],[1377838800000,163.65],[1378098000000,163.65],[1378184400000,164.39],[1378270800000,165.75],[1378357200000,165.96],[1378443600000,166.04],[1378702800000,167.63],[1378789200000,168.87],[1378875600000,169.4],[1378962000000,168.95],[1379048400000,169.33],[1379307600000,170.31],[1379394000000,171.07],[1379480400000,173.05],[1379566800000,172.76],[1379653200000,170.72],[1379912400000,169.93],[1379998800000,169.53],[1380085200000,169.04],[1380171600000,169.69],[1380258000000,168.91],[1380517200000,168.01],[1380603600000,169.34],[1380690000000,169.18],[1380776400000,167.62],[1380862800000,168.89],[1381122000000,167.43],[1381208400000,165.48],[1381294800000,165.6],[1381381200000,169.17],[1381467600000,170.26],[1381726800000,170.94],[1381813200000,169.7],[1381899600000,172.07],[1381986000000,173.22],[1382072400000,174.39],[1382331600000,174.4],[1382418000000,175.41],[1382504400000,174.57],[1382590800000,175.15],[1382677200000,175.95],[1382936400000,176.23],[1383022800000,177.17],[1383109200000,176.29],[1383195600000,175.79],[1383282000000,176.21],[1383544800000,176.83],[1383631200000,176.27],[1383717600000,177.17],[1383804000000,174.93],[1383890400000,177.29],[1384149600000,177.32],[1384236000000,176.96],[1384322400000,178.38],[1384408800000,179.27],[1384495200000,180.05],[1384754400000,179.42],[1384840800000,179.03],[1384927200000,178.47],[1385013600000,179.91],[1385100000000,180.81],[1385359200000,180.63],[1385445600000,180.68],[1385532000000,181.12],[1385618400000,181.12],[1385704800000,181],[1385964000000,180.53],[1386050400000,179.75],[1386136800000,179.73],[1386223200000,178.94],[1386309600000,180.94],[1386568800000,181.4],[1386655200000,180.75],[1386741600000,178.72],[1386828000000,178.13],[1386914400000,178.11],[1387173600000,179.22],[1387260000000,178.65],[1387346400000,181.7],[1387432800000,181.49],[1387519200000,181.56],[1387778400000,182.53],[1387864800000,182.93],[1387951200000,182.93],[1388037600000,183.86],[1388124000000,183.85],[1388383200000,183.82],[13884696000! 00,184.69! ],[1388556000000,184.69],[1388642400000,182.92],[1388728800000,182.89],[1388988000000,182.36],[1389074400000,183.48],[1389160800000,183.52],[1389247200000,183.64],[1389333600000,184.14],[1389592800000,181.69],[1389679200000,183.67],[1389765600000,184.66],[1389852000000,184.42],[1389938400000,183.64],[1390197600000,183.64],[1390284000000,184.18],[1390370400000,184.3],[1390456800000,182.79],[1390543200000,178.89],[1390802400000,178.01],[1390888800000,179.07],[1390975200000,177.35],[1391061600000,179.23],[1391148000000,178.18],[1391407200000,174.17],[1391493600000,175.39],[1391580000000,175.17],[1391666400000,177.48],[1391752800000,179.68],[1392012000000,180.01],[1392098400000,181.98],[1392184800000,182.07],[1392271200000,183.01],[1392357600000,184.02],[1392616800000,184.02],[1392703200000,184.24],[1392789600000,183.02],[1392876000000,184.1],[1392962400000,183.89],[1393221600000,184.91],[1393308000000,184.84],[1393394400000,184.85],[1393480800000,185.82],[1393567200000,186.29],[1393826400000,184.98],[1393912800000,187.58],[1393999200000,187.75],[1394085600000,188.18],[1394172000000,188.26],[1394427600000,188.16],[1394514000000,187.23],[1394600400000,187.28],[1394686800000,185.18],[1394773200000,184.66],[1395032400000,186.33],[1395118800000,187.66],[1395205200000,186.66],[1395291600000,187.75],[1395378000000,186.2],[1395637200000,185.43],[1395723600000,186.31],[1395810000000,184.97],[1395896400000,184.58],[1395982800000,185.49],[1396242000000,187.01],[1396328400000,188.25],[1396414800000,188.88],[1396501200000,188.63],[1396587600000,186.4],[1396846800000,184.34],[1396933200000,185.1],[1397019600000,187.09],[1397106000000,183.16],[1397192400000,181.51],[1397451600000,182.94],[1397538000000,184.2],[1397624400000,186.13],[1397710800000,186.39],[1397797200000,186.39],[1398056400000,187.04],[1398142800000,187.89],[1398229200000,187.45],[1398315600000,187.83],[1398402000000,186.29],[1398661200000,186.88],[1398747600000,187.75],[1398834000000,188.31],[1398920400000,188.33],[1399006800000,188.06],[1399266000000,188! .42],[139! 9349150000,188.42],[1399349150000,188.42],[1399302002000,188.42]]};var reporting=$('#reporting');Highcharts.setOptions({lang:{rangeSelectorZoom:""}});var chart=new Highcharts.StockChart({chart:{renderTo:'container_chart',marginRight:20,borderRadius:0,events:{load:function(){var chart=this,axis=chart.xAxis[0],buttons=chart.rangeSelector.buttons;function reset_all_buttons(){$.each(chart.rangeSelector.buttons,function(index,value){value.setState(0);});series=chart.get('SPY');series.remove();} buttons[0].on('click',function(e){chart.showLoading();reset_all_buttons();chart.rangeSelector.buttons[0].setState(2);var extremes=axis.getExtremes();$.getJSON('/modules/chart/price_chart_json.php?symbol=SPY&ser=1d',function(data){if(data!=null){var extremes=axis.getExtremes();axis.setExtremes(data[1][0][0],data[1][data[1].length-1][0]);chart.addSeries({name:'SPY',id:'SPY',color:'#4572A7',data:data[1]});if(data[0][1]>=0){display=data[0][0]+" (1D: +"+data[0][1]+"%)";reporting.html(display);}else{display=data[0][0]+" (1D: "+data[0][1]+"%)";reporting.html(display);} chart.hideLoading();}});});buttons[1].on('click',function(e){chart.showLoading();reset_all_buttons();chart.rangeSelector.buttons[1].setState(2);var extremes=axis.getExtremes();$.getJSON('/modules/chart/price_chart_json.php?symbol=SPY&ser=5d',function(data){if(data!=null){var extremes=axis.getExtremes();axis.setExtremes(data[1][0][0],data[1][data[1].length-1][0]);chart.addSeries({name:'SPY',id:'SPY',color:'#4572A7',data:data[1]});if(data[0][1]>=0){display=data[0][0]+" (5D: +"+data[0][1]+"%)";reporting.html(display);}else{display=data[0][0]+" (5D: "+data[0][1]+"%)";reporting.html(display);}} chart.hideLoading();});});buttons[2].on('click',function(e){chart.showLoading();reset_all_buttons();chart.rangeSelector.buttons[2].setState(2);var extremes=axis.getExtremes();$.getJSON('/modules/chart/price_chart_json.php?symbol=SPY&ser=ytd',function(data){if(data!=null){var extremes=axis.getExtremes();axis.setExtremes(data[1][0][0],data[1][data[1].length-1][0]);chart.addSeries({name:'SPY',id:'SPY',color:'#4572A7',data:data[1]});if(data[0][1]>=0){display=data[0][0]+" (YTD: +"+data[0][1]+"%)

Why Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Stock Is Down Today

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) was falling 2.7% to $31.60 Thursday following rival IBM's (IBM) poor quarterly results.

In its first-quarter results IBM posted earnings of $2.54 a share, missing analysts' estimates by 1 cent. Revenue fell 4% from the year-ago quarter to $22.48 billion, while analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected $22.93 billion in revenue.

The drop in revenue was largely due to a 23% drop in hardware and chip sales, a segment in which IBM and HP compete.

Must read: Warren Buffett's 10 Favorite Growth Stocks STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more. TheStreet Ratings team rates HEWLETT-PACKARD CO as a Hold with a ratings score of C+. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation: "We rate HEWLETT-PACKARD CO (HPQ) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed -- some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its solid stock price performance, impressive record of earnings per share growth and attractive valuation levels. However, as a counter to these strengths, we find that the company's profit margins have been poor overall." Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows: Investors have apparently begun to recognize positive factors similar to those we have mentioned in this report, including earnings growth. This has helped drive up the company's shares by a sharp 46.95% over the past year, a rise that has exceeded that of the S&P 500 Index. Regarding the stock's future course, our hold rating indicates that we do not recommend additional investment in this stock despite its gains in the past year. HEWLETT-PACKARD CO has improved earnings per share by 17.5% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past year. We feel that this trend should continue. This trend suggests that the performance of the business is improving. During the past fiscal year, HEWLETT-PACKARD CO turned its bottom line around by earning $2.62 versus -$6.45 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($3.71 versus $2.62). The company's current return on equity greatly increased when compared to its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a signal of significant strength within the corporation. Compared to other companies in the Computers & Peripherals industry and the overall market on the basis of return on equity, HEWLETT-PACKARD CO has underperformed in comparison with the industry average, but has exceeded that of the S&P 500. HPQ's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.89 is somewhat low overall, but it is high when compared to the industry average, implying that the management of the debt levels should be evaluated further. Regardless of the somewhat mixed results with the debt-to-equity ratio, the company's quick ratio of 0.75 is weak. The gross profit margin for HEWLETT-PACKARD CO is currently lower than what is desirable, coming in at 25.76%. Regardless of HPQ's low profit margin, it has managed to increase from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, HPQ's net profit margin of 5.06% is significantly lower than the industry average. You can view the full analysis from the report here: HPQ Ratings Report STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more.

Stock quotes in this article: HPQ, IBM 

Monday, March 9, 2015

Stocks open higher on second day of trading

Stocks opened higher Friday in the second day of trading as automakers released some strong year-end sales results.

The Dow Jones industrial average index rose 55 points to 16,496 at the opening bell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 5 points to 1,837 and the Nasdaq composite index added 5 points to 4,152.

Chrysler's U.S. sales rose 6% in the final month of the year, the company said Friday. Industry analysts expect a total U.S. sales gain of about 4% in December and an annual gain of around 8%. All automakers are releasing sales numbers.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average sank 135.31 points on its first day to 16,441.35. It was the worst first trading day since 2008.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 16.38 points, or 0.9%, to 1,831.98. The Nasdaq composite index slipped 33.52 points, or 0.8% to 4,143.07.

WALL STREET: Stocks fall in worst first trading day since 2008

European stocks edged higher on Friday, recovering from a bad first day of the year, but Asian markets closed lower following Thursday's declines on Wall Street.

In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.2% at 6,733 while Germany's DAX rose 0.4% to 9,433.. France's CAC-40 added 0.5% to 4,247.

Markets in Asia continued to decline on weaker Chinese manufacturing data. China's benchmark Shanghai composite index on Friday shed 1.2% to 2,083.14, adding to the previous day's 0.3% loss after an HSBC survey showed manufacturing activity weakened in December. Analysts said that suggested China's modest economic recovery might be fading.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 2.2% to 22,817.28. India's Sensex shed 0.7% to 20,754. Benchmarks in Singapore, Bangkok, Malaysia and Jakarta also declined. Tokyo was closed for the last day of its New Year's break.

Benchmark oil for February delivery fell 20 cents a barrel to $95.24 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract plunged $2.98 the previous day to settle at $95.44.

Contributing: Ass! ociated Press

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Can General Motors Break Higher?

With shares of General Motors (NYSE:GM) trading around $40, is GM an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

General Motors designs, manufactures, and markets cars, crossovers, trucks, and automobile parts worldwide. The company markets its vehicles primarily under the Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Opel, Holden, and Vauxhall brand names, as well as under the Alpheon, Jiefang, Baojun, and Wuling brand names. It sells cars and trucks to dealers for consumer retail sales as well as to fleet customers in daily rental car companies, commercial fleet customers, leasing companies, and governments.

General Motors' North American head said he believes the automaker will see a sales bump once the U.S. government exits its remaining stake in the company. Anonymous sources also told the Wall Street Journal that the government could sell its remaining stock in General Motors as soon as this week. The government has said that it plans to leave the company by the end of the year; the U.S. Treasury still owns 31.1 million shares in the Detroit-based automaker. GM has bounced back since its bailout in 2009 but still suffers from an image problem because of the government assistance, including the disparaging nickname "Government Motors."

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

General Motors stock has been in a range over the last couple of quarters. The stock is currently surging higher as it trades near highs for the year. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, General Motors is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

GM

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of General Motors options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

General Motors options

31.04%

73%

70%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Flat

Average

January Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on General Motors’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for General Motors look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-49.44%

-16.67%

-3.33%

6.49%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

3.72%

3.88%

-2.32%

3.47%

Earnings Reaction

3.24%

-1.10%

3.01%

0.03%

General Motors has seen decreasing earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about General Motors’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has General Motors stock done relative to its peers, Ford Motor (NYSE:F), Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA), and sector?

General Motors

Ford Motor

Toyota Motor

Tesla Motors

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

41.59%

28.19%

30.64%

329.30%

34.47%

General Motors has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

General Motors continues to change its business as it looks to entice companies and consumers with its new and improved vehicles. The company's North American head said he believes the automaker will see a sales bump once the U.S. government exits its remaining stake in the company. The stock has been in a range over the last couple of quarters but, is currently surging higher. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been decreasing while revenues have been rising, which produced conflicting feelings among investors. Relative to its peers and sector, General Motors has been a relative year-to-date performance leader. Look for General Motors to OUTPERFORM.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Cyber Monday clicks in with record sales

Cyber Monday rocked while mobile sales rolled.

The day widely regarded as the Super Bowl of online sales ca-chinged its way to a record day for retailers, including Walmart, and marked a shift in shopping preferences as smartphones and tablets drove nearly a third of traffic — and for some retailers, more than half.

The numbers are mind-boggling. As of 6 p.m. Eastern time, overall sales were up 17.5% on Cyber Monday compared with last year, says IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark. Another e-commerce research company, Custora Pulse, found online sales up almost 19%. The numbers may shift even higher as people continue to shop through the evening.

This year, "Cyber Monday is well on its way to being the biggest online shopping day in history," says Custora CEO Corey Pierson.

Walmart.com expects to register its biggest Cyber Monday yet, coming off a record Black Friday weekend online. Heading into the afternoon Monday, the website had already sold out of PlayStation 4 and Xbox One consoles, which weren't even discounted. Significant savings on TVs and tablets also encouraged shopping, says Joel Anderson, CEO of Walmart.com.

"There's no way ... that it won't finish as our biggest Cyber Monday ever," he says.

Anderson expects that more than half of Monday's online traffic will have come from mobile devices. On Black Friday, mobile accounted for 55% of traffic to Walmart.com, the first time mobile was more than half of site visits.

"I think 2013 will be remembered as the year online went mobile," Anderson says.

Overall, 29.4% of online traffic was mobile, according to data from IBM Digital Analytics Benchmark

That's up 61% from last year. Shoppers used smartphones to browse but were more likely to make purchases on a tablet, the data show.

And 2013 is the year the term "Cyber Monday" got a face-lift. Retailers from Target to Sears are fast evolving Cyber Monday into something more akin to Cyber Week, as online deals stretch well beyond Monday.

! "You'll see retailers get incrementally more aggressive with promotions as the week goes on," says Brian Sozzi, CEO at Belus Capital Advisors.

As of 6 p.m. ET, sales on Amazon were up 44.3% over last year, while sales at eBay were up 32.1%, according to ChannelAdvisor, which tracks third-party sellers on eBay and Amazon. The online marketplaces are doing well in part because shoppers are heading to those sites to find popular products that are selling out at regular retailers, says Scot Wingo, CEO of ChannelAdvisor.

Flash-sale site Rue La La started Cyber Monday deals on Sunday with a "Cyberthon" that drew more than 350,000 people to the site. The sale promoted as much as 80% off on more than 150 brands. On Monday, sales of Cole Haan and Pandora Jewelry merchandise were strongest, CEO Steve Davis says.